Please post the map from RCP that has the leaning states and the toss ups. I think this elecetion is going to be extremely close and that McCain is going to win some of the states that are within 5% right now. Like Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. I also think he is going to pull some of the western states he is down in also like Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. This election is going to come down to Ohio's 20 electoral votes! My predicition is 279-259 one way or the other.

Might be a little wishful thinking but hey that's why they actually have to count the votes before they announce the winner!

I kind of disagree with my good friend Jason too. I think North Carolina and Florida will swing back to McCain. It is also possible he will pick up Ohio and Nevada. However, I think Obama still wins this by picking up Colorado and Virginia.

I think Virginia and North Carolina will go for McCain. The key will be Florida, Ohio, and Colorado. I am hearing of really high minority turnout here in Florida which could turn this state blue. I also played with the map a little and see a 269-269 tie as a not too remote possibility.

Interestingly enough, there are a number of people who have talked ernestly about an electoral tie. However, I am not convinced that is going to happen or is likely to happen. I see McCain winning Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona,Ohio, Mississippi, Alabama, Idaho, Alaska, Nebraska, and Kansas. That is 27 states. I think Obama will carry Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New York, Hawaii, California, Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia. That is 23 states plus the D.C. federal district. Nevertheless, although I think McCain will carry more states than Obama, I think Obama will carry enough of the heavier states that he will pull out a decent electoral victory, as much as I hate to see that.

Gentlemen, we will know very soon who will carry what state. With the very large turnout in so many states including Georgia in the early voting it will be interesting to see who will pull this one off.
Artie

Electoral Outlook: Obama has large ego

I agree w/ Dr. Wells that Florida will swing back to McCain. Not so sure about NC though but for the sake of argument will give it to him. I also disagree w/ Brian--Virginia will go blue. Colorado is safely blue as well in my opinion. That leaves Ohio as a must hold w/ a pick up on Penn for McCain to even come close (D-270, R-268). But like I said, I'm not so sure about NC and I don't see McCain picking up Penn which takes it to 306-232. But does anyone really think McCain can take Ohio anyway? It could be a bloodbath.

I think we will see a slight Bradley effect which will boost McCain 1-2 points. Also, McCain's strength as a good closer will add maybe another point making the popular vote closer than most polls are showing.

It's just really a moot point now--McCain doesn't seem to have a realistic chance for an electoral victory.

Oh well--all the more reason to vote your conscience and go w/ Bob Barr. And here in GA--vote for Al