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GOP abandons libertarians

"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism." - Ronald Reagan

Ryan Sager points out the divide between libertarians and Republicans:

That coalition between social conservatives and economic libertarians (who tend to be socially moderate to liberal), served the GOP well from 1964 to 2006. It gave the party eight years of Ronald Reagan and 12 years of a Republican Congress. But the Bush years have proven to be one long pulling apart. And, in a matter of days, we may just see the final snap.

The Cato Institute has done excellent work over the last few years tracking the shift in the libertarian vote—the roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of the American public that can be categorized as fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

Based on an analysis of the American National Election Studies, Cato found that between 2000 and 2004, there was a substantial flight of libertarians away from the Republican Party and toward the Democrats. While libertarians preferred Bush by a margin of 52 points over Al Gore in 2000, that margin shrank to 21 points in 2004, when many libertarians—disaffected by the Iraq war, massive GOP spending increases, and the campaign against gay marriage—switched to John Kerry.

Polling on libertarian voters is somewhat sparse during elections, but there are a couple of data points and some broad trends that can give us an idea of where things stand now. An early October Zogby Interactive poll found that self-identified libertarians (about 6 percent of the poll's sample) give McCain only 36 percent of their vote, lower than the 45 percent and 42 percent Zogby found them giving Bush in the last two elections. The libertarian voters claim to be defecting mainly to Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr and other third-party candidates, not to Obama. A Gallup poll conducted in September, which identified libertarian-minded voters with a series of ideological questions about the role of government in the economy and society (pegging them at around 23 percent of the electorate), found that only 43 percent of these voters plan pull the lever for McCain, slightly fewer than did for Bush in 2004. The Gallup poll also finds a significant uptick in libertarians planning to vote third-party, with 3.5 percent supporting Barr.
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Why would libertarians abandon McCain? After all, they believe in low taxes—and McCain is the one promising those. And if they're concerned about social issues, well, McCain's never shown much of a stomach for cultural warfare.

That is, of course, until now.

The real McCain, whoever that is or was, may still believe that major swathes of the Religious Right represent "agents of intolerance" in our politics. But he has decided to stake both his election and the Republican Party's future upon them—from the barely coded racial refrain of "Who is Barack Obama?," to the rallies with shouts of "terrorist" and "kill him," to the corrosive choice of pipeline-prayer Sarah Palin as his running mate and heir apparent.

Groups like the Republican Liberty Caucus continue to hope to "work inside the party" and change things. But is it working? Doesn't seem that way because the GOP still drifts further to big government.

Personally, I find it hypocritical to vote for a party that tells me they support less government and less spending but they don't show it when they're in office. Saxby Chambliss is a perfect example of that hypocrisy.

Comments

It's funny how a lot of libertarians, conservatives, and Republicans complain about how we didn't have a real conservative in the presidential race this year, but if you actually read the Reason interview with Ronald Reagan, you find that libertarians had the same objections to Reagan as libertarians, conservatives, and Republicans have to today's Republican candidates.

There is a dangerous party and a stupid party. I belong to the stupid party!

[I]f you actually read the Reason interview with Ronald Reagan, you find that libertarians had the same objections to Reagan as libertarians, conservatives, and Republicans have to today's Republican candidates.

You're right. A lot of people forget that Phil Crane was supposed to be the "conservative's choice" in 1980.

But that being said, there was no Reagan (or a 1980 Phil Crane) in this year's GOP presidential primary.

If you study Gov Palin's record and not what the MSM tells you, libertarians would understand that she is the cloest thing to a libertarians that they will ever have in the WH.

She believes in limited government, federalism, less taxes. yes she is a christian yet she has never tried to ram those views down others throats. She believes in living a moral life and letting her actions convert others not the gov. Pretty much what libertians think. She is for a strong military but other that that Gov Palin is a massive libertian.

Hate to burst your bubble, but Sarah Palin has increased taxes and redistributed wealth in Alaska. That's not libertarian.