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Congressional Ballot Polls

Republicans trailed Democrats by 11 points in the polls just a couple months ago. A new Gallup poll now shows the GOP within three points:

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

I need to sit down this weekend and look through some poll numbers for individual races and see what is going on.

Comments

I'll be interested to see what you find on individual races and hope you post about.

I am inherently skeptical about these "generic" ballots because we've seen them before and the incumbent re-election rate in the election that follows ends up approaching numbers that would have made the Soviet Politburo seem democratic by comparison.

SARAH.

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