GOP Tsunami Tuesday Live-Blogging
Welcome Instapundit readers.
I'll be following returns as they come in this evening. Listed below are the states who have a primary today. The number in parenthesis is the delegates that are up grabs. Delegate numbers with an asterisk are winner take all states. A few of the states are closed primary states, meaning you have to be a registered voter for the party primary you are voting in, but I didn't include that in this list.
Alabama (48) - Huckabee
Alaska (29) - Romney
Arizona (53*) - McCain
Arkansas (34) - Huckabee
California (173) - McCain
Colorado (46) - Romney
Connecticut (30*) - McCain
Delaware (18*) - McCain
Georgia (72) - Huckabee
Illinois (70) - McCain
Massachusetts (43) - Romney
Minnesota (41) - Romney
Missouri (58*) - McCain
Montana (25*) - Romney
New Jersey (52*) - McCain
New York (101*) - McCain
North Dakota (26) - Romney
Oklahoma (41) - McCain
Tennessee (55) - Huckabee
Utah (36*) - Romney
West Virginia (18) - Huckabee
[3:14pm] Huckabee wins West Virginia in the first results turned in for today. He defeated Romney by 46 delegates.
[3:35pm] Rush Limbaugh endorsed Mitt Romney today. James Dobson says he'll stay home this November if McCain is the nominee.
[3:48pm] McCain fires back at Senate colleagues criticizing him: "[I]n all due respect to a couple of those people that are criticizing me, they’re not the most respected members of the United States Senate, to be honest with you."
[4:54pm] Doug Mataconis points to more evidence of a McCain/Huckabee deal in West Virginia via Marc Ambinder: "[S]ources say that representatives for John McCain called many of his reps in WV and asked them to vote for Huckabee...in order to thwart Romney on the second ballot."
[5:32pm] I'm sure this was expected, but Romney is up in Massachusetts, according to exit polls.
[7:00pm] Polls have closed in Georgia.
[7:07pm] You can view the exit polls for Georgia here.
[7:20pm] Here is a list of the states closing their polls at 8pm EST: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.
[7:26pm] Results are finally starting to trickle in for Georgia.
[7:32pm] Glenn Reynolds (aka. Instapundit) writes, "Jason Pye is liveblogging the GOP results, but he's apparently staying sober." My case of Newcastle is in the fridge and I reserve the right to get smashed if Huckabee wins Georgia.
[7:40pm] Results are coming in very slowly for Georgia. McCain is ahead at this point, but less than one percent of the precincts are reporting.
[7:57pm] The ever awesome looking Mary Katherine Ham is on Fox News this evening.
[7:59pm] More exit polls for several states.
[8:00pm] John McCain has been projected the winner for New Jersey, Connecticut and Illinois.
[8:00pm] Alabama goes for Huckabee. Romney takes Massachusetts.
[8:05pm] Polls closed in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Tennessee about five minutes ago.
[8:09pm] Five percent reporting in Georgia, Huckabee is ahead with 37%, followed by McCain who has 33%.
[8:10pm] I may have put down Alabama for Huckabee too early. Nothing has been confirmed yet, though I thought I heard them say that.
[8:16pm] Arkansas closes its polls at 8:30pm. I supposed that its little more than a formality that it will go for Huckabee.
[8:21pm] McCain has an early lead Tennessee.
[8:27pm] Ten percent reporting in Georgia, Huckabee still leads with 38%.
[8:30pm] Huckabee is projected to win Arkansas. No surprised there.
[8:35pm] McCain is the projected winner in Delaware.
[8:36pm] With 6% reporting in Alabama, McCain has a very slight lead over Huckabee.
[8:37pm] Twenty percent is now reporting in Georgia and 4% separates Huckabee (34%), McCain (32%) and Romney (30%).
[8:38pm] On Fox News, Karl Rove points out that a McCain/Huckabee ticket is "doubling your trouble" for McCain because of the criticism that Huckabee has faced over his tax record and immigration. He doubts that this will be the ticket. Chris Wallace mentioned South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford (one of my heroes). Rove said, "That certainly is possible."
[8:50pm] McCain holds early leads in Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
[8:52pm] It looks like Huckabee will win Georgia. Time to break out the booze.
[8:54pm] McCain leads in Alabama with 10% reporting.
[8:56pm] Another round of states will begin to report at 9pm: Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota and New York.
[9:00pm] Arizona, McCain's home state, can't be called yet. Apparently, Romney is doing well there.
[9:05pm] McCain has a solid lead in Montana with 12% reporting.
[9:16pm] This just came through the wire: "The Associated Press has withdrawn its projection that Mike Huckabee has won the GOP primary in Georgia. The GOP race is still too close to call."
[9:18pm] McCain holds a 9% lead over Huckabee in Alabama.
[9:18pm] McCain is the projected winner in New York.
[9:19pm] Immigration is the issue for voters in Arizona. That explains why McCain is having problems.
[9:20pm] McCain has won four "winner take all" states, adding up to 201 delegates.
[9:29pm] McCain has leads in Montana, Tennessee, Alabama and Oklahoma. Huckabee is leading in Missouri.
[9:44pm] I think it's clear that Huckabee's presence in this race is hurting John McCain, not Mitt Romney.
[9:54pm] McCain is projected to win in Oklahoma.
[9:58pm] Romney is leading in Minnesota with 8% reporting.
[10:00pm] North Dakota and Utah will close at 10pm.
[10:00pm] No surprised that Utah goes for Mitt Romney.
[10:02pm] Arizona still hasn't been called, but you can view the exit poll here.
[10:15pm] Take a look at the exit poll in Missouri. I wonder what's going on there. Huckabee has held the lead for most of the night, but the exit polls show that McCain should be winning. Either some suburban county hasn't reported or people were lying when the came out of the polling places.
[10:18pm] Romney holds leads in Minnesota and Montana.
[10:30pm] North Dakota is projected to go for Romney.
[10:34pm] Romney vows to continue his campaign.
[10:38pm] Romney is leading in Colorado. His leads in Minnesota and Montana are holding steady.
[10:41pm] Arizona has been called for McCain. Tennessee and Georgia have been called for Huckabee. I've been drinking heavily since about 8:30pm.
[10:55pm] Polls are about to close in California.
[10:56pm] I'm putting Montana down for Romney. He has a double digit lead with 88% reporting.
[11:00pm] McCain has pulled within one percent of Huckabee in Missouri.
[11:02pm] California is too close to call.
[11:04pm] McCain has taken the lead in Missouri.
[11:09pm] Romney has been projected as the winner in Montana.
[11:13pm] Romney is the projected winner in Minnesota.
[11:18pm] About 450 votes separate McCain and Huckabee, who holds the lead, in Missouri with 86% of the precincts reporting.
[11:22pm] McCain holds an early lead in California.
[11:30pm] McCain is back on top in Missouri.
[11:41pm] McCain is giving his speech. He is talking like he is the nominee and he is being very gracious to Romney.
[11:46pm] It seems as though McCain will win Missouri. Romney still has a significant lead in Colorado.
[11:48pm] McCain is out in front in California.
[11:50pm] Romney is the projected winner in Colorado.
[11:57pm] McCain takes Missouri. That one went back and forth for the last couple hours.
[12:03am] One question I have to ask is if Huckabee's win in West Virginia helped him during the day. That vote came in very early in the afternoon and was played up all over the media. You have to wonder if it made him look more viable than he really is.
[12:06am] Polls have closed in Alaska.
[12:13am] McCain is the projected winner in California.
[12:27am] Alright, I'm done. Thanks for reading and good night.
Comments
Do you plan on breaking down the delegate count for the states that aren't winner take all?
Posted by: Jace Walden | February 5, 2008 03:18 PM
I guess.
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 03:39 PM
Jason,
I sent an e-mail to your work account and one to your home account asking you a question. Why are you evading my question?
Posted by: Jace Walden | February 5, 2008 03:44 PM
I'm at home, but I didn't get an e-mail from you. I saw the one sent to my work account.. The answer to your question is no.
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 03:46 PM
I am scared to know the question.
Posted by: Doug Craig | February 5, 2008 03:56 PM
If I'm reading CNN's exit polls right, break out that Newcastle because Tax Hike Mike will win Georgia.
Posted by: Kevin | February 5, 2008 07:48 PM
I think McCain edges him out, but the Newcastle is standing by.
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 07:51 PM
This is quote of the night so far.
Posted by: Rusty | February 5, 2008 07:52 PM
Just a thought experiment as we wait for results...
If Huckabee gets a substantial amount of delegates tonight and then, drops-out...what happens to his delegates in the convention (if it gets that far)?
Posted by: joe.politico | February 5, 2008 08:44 PM
I believe he can release them to another candidate.
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 08:46 PM
This situation came up on TV a few days ago when Edwards dropped out. It depends on party rule. In the Dem party, they candidate issues a statement (not a requirement to make an official statement, just tradition) that releases the delegates to other candidates. I imagine that the delegate Edwards won would vote for the overall winner in their respective state.
Posted by: Harry Johnson | February 5, 2008 09:29 PM
I love it, Romney is BOMBING!
Posted by: Joshua Patterson | February 5, 2008 09:35 PM
[9:16pm] This just came through the wire:
How long do you have to be a blogger before the AP runs a wire into your house?
Posted by: Joshua Patterson | February 5, 2008 09:38 PM
Bomb Romney, bomb!
Posted by: Amy | February 5, 2008 09:40 PM
Haha. Dork.
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 09:40 PM
In Henry Co. I noticed Huckabee is at 40% over Romney's 31% and McCain's 25%. (84% reporting)
Posted by: joe.politico | February 5, 2008 09:46 PM
"I think it's clear that Huckabee's presence in this race is hurting John McCain, not Mitt Romney."
But all the 'professional conservatives' said voting for Huckabee would hurt Romney and that he was a spoiler.
/scratches head with sarcastic confusion
Posted by: joe.politico | February 5, 2008 09:51 PM
Are you surprised by that? There is a church on every corner in Henry County.
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 09:53 PM
"Are you surprised by that? There is a church on every corner in Henry County."
Not at all. Just wanted to throw in the local results for the curious so no one had the leave your blog!
Posted by: joe.politico | February 5, 2008 10:03 PM
Gotcha. Do you agree with my assessment about Huckabee hurting McCain?
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 10:05 PM
The only way I could agree with this assessment is if you buy the possibility that Southerners are voting against Romney because he's a Mormon. I'm not sure that I can.
Posted by: Kevin | February 5, 2008 10:10 PM
"Do you agree with my assessment about Huckabee hurting McCain?"
In the BIG picture, I don't think Huckabee will get enough delegates to beat McCain, but possibly more than Romney in the end.
If that is the case, then no, Huck' will not hurt McCain.
If it becomes totally clear that Huck can not win after tonight, I can see Huck passing his support to McCain.
Posted by: joe.politico | February 5, 2008 10:12 PM
It seems that they (media) will not call GA & MO as if they want to keep viewers around all night.
Posted by: joe.politico | February 5, 2008 10:21 PM
Another thought...
If, after tonight, it does indeed come down to a two-man race (McCain and Huckabee), will the 'professional conservatives' support Huckabee and then say that they now back Huckabee because he is the only 'true conservative'?
Posted by: joe.politico | February 5, 2008 10:32 PM
I wonder how Huckabee would've done in Georgia if Neal Boortz hadn't turned his show into an infomercial for Huckabee.
Posted by: Kevin | February 5, 2008 10:45 PM
I've lost a lot of respect for Neal Boortz.
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 10:56 PM
Is it sad that I'm more excited and glued to the TV over Super Tuesday than I was for the Super Bowl?
*channel flips for poll updates
Posted by: Amy | February 5, 2008 11:24 PM
Not at all.
Posted by: Jason | February 5, 2008 11:27 PM
Hey guys. Hows it going?
Just got home. Hey Joe thereason they have not called GA is because they still have a half(150+ precincts) of Fulton not reported, 40+ Cobb precincts out,15 more in Chatham, and 13 more Gwinnett precincts to count.
FYI All of these are counties where it is trending Romney and second to McCain, which means both of them could still catch Huck!
Posted by: Rep Davis | February 5, 2008 11:28 PM
oops, spoke to soon they just called it for Huck. I still think it is close enough to wait with MCCain only 15,000 votes back.
Posted by: Rep Davis | February 5, 2008 11:33 PM
Rep Davis,
My estimates with what's left makes it tough for McCain to catch Huckabee, but it should end close.
Posted by: Doug | February 5, 2008 11:35 PM
What's striking to me is the abject failure of the Romney campaign in the South and the Midwest.
Posted by: Kevin | February 5, 2008 11:35 PM
Kevin, basically splitting Georgia 3 ways isn't really ABJECT failure.
He may even still finish second here.
Posted by: Doug | February 5, 2008 11:40 PM
All of the 3rd Congressional district is in and Huck gets our 3 delegates in addition to the Statewide 33.
CNN said they are calling it based n exit polls! the difference is now only 14,500.
Posted by: Rep Davis | February 5, 2008 11:40 PM
Rudy beat Fred in GA. Yeah!
Posted by: Publius V. | February 5, 2008 11:50 PM
The ARC must be in charge of counting votes in Fulton County! Im tired and I wish they would hurry up.
Posted by: Rep Davis | February 5, 2008 11:56 PM
Fox News just called Missouri for McCain. Add another nail to Romney's coffin.
Posted by: Kevin | February 5, 2008 11:59 PM
Rep Davis,
Senator McCain was very welcoming to us Rudy Folks. I am sure he would now welcome you and the rest of the Romney supporters.
Posted by: Publius V. | February 6, 2008 07:21 AM
I'm very sympathetic to the Religious Right, so let me say that James Dobson is making an idiotic statement. He says he can't in good conscience vote for McCain. But you would think a Christian leader would know biblical principles. You would think he would remember Jeremiah's words: The heart is deceitful above all things, exceptionally wicked, who can know it?
Dr. Dobson, is your goal to feel good about yourself or actually DO good?
If I criticize Andrew Sullivan for using conscience as his standard, then I must criticize Dr. Dobson for making the same stupid error.
I guess this goes along with a lot of the moral cowardice of a lot of evangelicals these days who do not want to make ANY judgements whatsoever! I respect Ann Coulter more than Dobson because at least she is not taking a cowardly position by supporting Hillary over McCain. She is actually choosing who she thinks will do the least harm.
Posted by: Robbie | February 6, 2008 08:50 AM
If both Dobson & Coulter support Hillary, they might do good. They might actually move the Democratic Party to the Right, away from the radical cultural Left.
Posted by: Robbie | February 6, 2008 08:54 AM
"I've lost a lot of respect for Neal Boortz."
Me too. More than anything else that's happened this election season, I've seen Boortz go from at least lip service to freedom and liberty to largely abandoning those principles in favor of continuing the Iraq war and supporting a candidate whose only qualification is nominal support for Boortz' tax plan - when everything else about the candidate should send a real Libertarian running for the hills. Boortz flat out said that his biggest issue was "Islamofascism" yesterday, and, to me, that means that Boortz has finally fully made the transition to neo-con Republican.
Posted by: Paul Shuford | February 6, 2008 08:59 AM
I don't agree with the term "Islamofascist." I don't think it's accurate. (Although Saddam Hussein was an Arab Fascist.) I prefer the term Jihadists. The jihadists are not national socialists (they have no theory of how to run a nation-state). They are international nihilists (they only want to kill & be killed in order to usher in the reign of Allah). That's why they're weak and pathetic--unlike the fascists, who were formidable--and they won't win unless we give up.
So other than the use of the term "Islamofascist," good for Boortz!
Posted by: Robbie | February 6, 2008 10:20 AM
I was looking at the vote totals for Henry county. It looks like Henry is now almost 50/50 (give or take a couple of thousand)between the number of Democratic voters and the number of Republican Voters. With Replicans having a slight majority.
It's time for me to move to Forsyth County.
Posted by: Koz | February 6, 2008 02:17 PM
The only way I could agree with this assessment is if you buy the possibility that Southerners are voting against Romney because he's a Mormon. I'm not sure that I can.
I can believe it.
Posted by: Prudie | February 6, 2008 02:21 PM