Latest polls out of Georgia

A couple of polls conducted here in Georgia have come out in the last couple of weeks. The oldest comes from Survey USA, which was taken on December 6-7 for 11 Alive (WXIA). This poll measures the race of the GOP nomination and some other issues, including the transportation sales tax hike and legalizing casino gambling. We’re only going to look at the GOP race though, but you should take a look at the rest of the data.

GOP primary

• Newt Gingrich: 65%
• Mitt Romney: 12%
• Michele Bachmann: 5%
• Ron Paul: 5%
• Rick Perry: 4%
• Rick Santorum: 1%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Other/Undecided: 8%

Survey USA also measured head-to-head matchups pairing Romney and Gingrich separately with President Barack Obama. As you can see, Obama’s ceiling is very low and it makes no difference, at this point, in who the GOP nominates.

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

• Obama: 42%
• Romney: 49%
• Undecided: 9%

Barack Obama v. Newt Gingrich

• Obama: 42%
• Gingrich: 48%
• Undecided: 9%

Mason-Dixon also conducted a poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, which shows Gingrich leading; but not by as significant a margin:

Gingrich, a former Georgia congressman, leads Romney 43 percent to 21 percent among Georgia Republicans, according to the poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Georgia Newspaper Partnership. No other candidate drew double-digit support.

Like Survey USA, Mason-Dixon compared head-to-head general election matchups:

The results show that Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is the stronger general election candidate.

Both Romney and Gingrich are favored in matchups with Obama. But Romney’s lead is bigger. In a Gingrich-Obama matchup, Gingrich is favored 50 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent undecided. In a Romney-Obama matchup, Romney gets 55 percent support to Obama’s 38 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

The difference? Women and independents, said Mason-Dixon managing partner Brad Coker.

“The ultimate group that will make or break any group in the general election are politically independent, not really strongly affiliated suburban women,” Coker said. “Romney is much more attractive to those voters now than Gingrich is.”

That dynamic plays out, too, in the race for the state’s primary. While Gingrich enjoys a healthy lead — not a surprise, given his ties here, Coker said — his support is softer among women. Twenty-nine percent of Republican women support Gingrich, compared with 52 percent of male GOP voters, the poll found.

It’s not a surprise to see Gingrich so far ahead. Before he “suspended” his campaign, Cain, who also from Georgia, was ahead in the polls. I would be surprised if Gingrich didn’t win the primary here in Georgia at this point, though at least one friend has bet me a bottle of Crown (well, that’s what he’d get — I don’t drink anymore) that I’m wrong.